Oil For Supercars 'To Run Dry In A Month' Thanks To U.S-Israel War With Iran - Jalopnik

Zuumy/Getty Images Supercar ownership in this day and age cannot be fun. The seemingly never-ending war in Iran has put a chokehold on gas and foreign product pricing, and President Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs has made getting spare parts an absolute bear. Ownership is set to become even more costly as experts say the world is running out of base oil — the critical oil you need to keep that premium-spec engine running. And according to CNBC, that could happen in as quickly as a month. Base oil, if unfamiliar, is an essential component for making multiple lubricating applications, including engine oil. "The clue is in the name, as in, they are essentially the base for all finished lubricants for automotive, industrial, aviation, marine ... you name it, if something moves, it will need a lubricant and that's made from a base oil," Gabriella Twining, head of base oils pricing at Argus Media told CNBC. She added, "Stocks are going to run dry in a month if nothing comes in... . You can push back an oil change, but it's just going to be more expensive and there will be less availability." The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already exacerbated the near stagnant supply of these important base oils. So, hypothetically, if a country bombed an area and took a critical refinery offline, it would likely kick off the perfect storm leading to one massive shortage. Mlenny/Getty Images Earlier in the week, the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA) sent a two-page document to customers outlining the causes of the "2026 Global Base Oil Supply Crisis." The literature focused on Group III base oil product, which is the middle-of-the road of refined base oils. It and Group IV products are the ones utilized to create the performance-minded motor oils used for supercars and luxury vehicles. Group III crude is processed by three refineries in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain. Qatar's refinery is currently offline due to damage it sustained in March (take a guess as to why), and the other two are unable to export as the ports those locales would utilize are in the compromised part of the Strait of Hormuz. So, "Plan B" for Group III production would go to South Korean facilities. But, those refineries pivoted from base oil to feedstock recently to make fuel as it was struggling to obtain crude oil product from the Middle East. The final backup for Group III production is to utilize Group II crude (a lesser refined crude) to make base oils, but that's been utilized for diesel production due to shortages. The ILMA's CEO Holly Alfano told CNBC in an email, "Altogether, these dynamics are placing nearly three-quarters of US Group III imports under stress, while also eliminating the industry's ability to substitute with Group II base oils." Kevin Carter/Getty Images Alfano also warned that hurricane season is on the horizon, which could prove detrimental. She added, "Even a single storm impacting the Gulf Coast could take out 30-40 percent of US Group II capacity and an additional 10 percent of Group III, further tightening an already strained supply chain." Consumers might experience the future strained supply chain in the form of long running times for backorder fulfillment and/or maintenance work like oil changes. Earlier this week, Costa Kapothanasis who owns Costa Oil, a quick oil change franchise with over 200 locations, provided a dark customer-facing picture when he posted on Twitter, "Just got word Mobil and Shell have informed Costco and Walmart they have no packaged product to send them and to expect bare shelves in the motor oil section in a few weeks." To paint a grimmer picture, the ILMA expects the Middle East to run out of Group III oil by June. If you consider what Alfano said, that three-quarters of those imports are under stress, it doesn't leave a ton of margin to work with to try and Flex-seal the hole in the sinking ship of oil imports. And a resolution to what could become a global problem isn't expected until this time next year. Without an end to the war in sight, it looks as though big-dollar vehicles may see another surcharge on oil changes and maintenance. That is, if they are able to schedule them at all.